中非集装箱航运网络演化及其对经贸联系的支撑能力

中非海运网络既是国际航运网络的重要组成部分,又对保障中非贸易的畅通具有重要意义。本文基于1998年、2008年和2018年3个时间断面的中非航运集装箱数据, 深入探讨“海上丝路”背景下中非航运网络格局和其演化特征并揭示中非地缘经济联系强度的影响因素。结果表明：①整体看网络复杂性增强,中非港口联系广度与强度明显提高,“小世界”和无标度特征明显。网络呈现“纺锤形”结构,网络尚没有形成一体化的轴-辐结构;②从网络节点发育及功能分化看,国内港口较为稳定,上海、宁波和深圳始终处于中非联系的前三位;新加坡、巴生港在中转港中占据主导地位;非洲港口出现明显的迁移,南非、北非、东非、西非各形成了区域性枢纽港,但没有形成具有大洲层面整合作用的枢纽港;③航运中间性是中国与非洲地缘经济联系的重要推动力,航运邻近性对中国与非洲地缘经济联系作用显著,航运直达性对中国与非洲地缘经济联系的作用有限。中非友好互助历史悠久,伴随着“一带一路”倡议的深入推进、中非地缘经济联系的加强,应该采取相应的措施完善与优化海运结构以提高对经济合作与联系的支撑能力。

Change of China-Africa container shipping network and its ability to support economic and trade ties

As an important part of the international shipping network, the China-Africa maritime network is of great significance for ensuring the unimpeded trade between China and Africa. Based on the China-Africa shipping container data in 1998, 2008, and 2018, this study explored the spatial pattern of China-Africa shipping network and its characteristics of change under the background of the Maritime Silk Road construction, and revealed the influencing factors of the strength of China-Africa geo-economic ties. The results show that: (1) On the whole, the complexity of the network has grown, the breadth and strength of China-Africa port connections have increased significantly, and the “small world” and scale-free characteristics of the network are obvious. The network presents a “spindle” structure and has not yet formed an integrated hub-spoke structure. (2) From the perspective of network node development and functional differentiation, Chinese ports are relatively stable. The ports of Shanghai, Ningbo, and Shenzhen have always been among the top three in China-Africa ties; Singapore and Port Klang occupy a dominant position among the transit ports; and there has been a significant shift of African ports. South Africa, North Africa, East Africa, and West Africa have each formed a regional hub port, but a hub port with a continent-level integration effect has not been formed. (3) Shipping betweenness is an important driving force of geo-economic ties between China and Africa; shipping proximity plays a significant role in geo-economic relations between China and Africa, while shipping directness plays a limited role in geo-economic relations between China and Africa. China and Africa have a long history of friendship and mutual assistance. With the deepening of the Belt and Road initiative and the strengthening of geo-economic ties between China and Africa, corresponding measures should be taken to improve and optimize the maritime transport structure to enhance the supporting capacity of economic cooperation and ties.