汇率变化对中国入境旅游美国市场的影响研究

本研究选择2005.1-2008.12的月度数据,运用协整与误差修正模型考察了人民币兑美元汇率的变化对美国市场需求的影响。结果表明,中国入境旅游美国市场需求与人民币兑美元汇率、客源地收入水平及目的地旅游供给水平之间有长期均衡关系。在长期,汇率变动会促进中国入境旅游美国市场需求增长。在短期,汇率作用效果不显著。此外,无论在长期还是短期,客源地收入与中国旅游供给水平对美国旅游者需求都有显著促进作用。美国旅游者对中国旅游产品需求稳定性强,对价格不敏感;需求汇率弹性小,收入富有弹性。最后提出了相关建议。

Study on the Impact of Exchange Rate Change on the Inbound Tourism of American Market in China

Based on the seasonal adjustment and analysis by selecting the data from Jan.2005 to Dec.2008,＂co-integration analysis and error correction model （ECM） are used to study on the impact of RMB exchange rate change against the dollar on the inbound tourism of American market in China.The results show that there is a long-term and stable relationship among the inbound tourism of American market demand and RMB exchange rate and tourist income level and destination tourism supply level.In the long term,exchange rate movements can enhance American market demand in the Chinese inbound tourism.In the short term,the exchange rate effect on the tourist demand is not significant.In addition,both in long-term and in short-term,the America tourist income and tourist supply level in China enhance strongly the demand of American tourists.The demand of the tourists stabilizes and the tourists are not sensitive to China tourism product price.Finally,some relevant suggestions are put forward.