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| 采用均匀设计SP调查的出行方式选择建模与敏感性分析 | |
| 引用本文： | 景鹏,隽志才,贾玲玉.采用均匀设计SP调查的出行方式选择建模与敏感性分析[J].预测,2012,31(4):75-80. |
| 作者姓名： | 景鹏 隽志才 贾玲玉 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 江苏大学汽车与交通工程学院,江苏镇江212013;上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院,上海200052 2. 上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院,上海,200052 3. 北京交通大学经济管理学院,北京,100044 |
| 基金项目： | 教育部人文社会科学研究基金资助项目，江苏省社会科学基金资助项目 |
| 摘 要： | 本文采用均匀设计的方法设计了关于出行方式选择的SP调查方案,考虑到影响因素随出行者和出行方式的变化有所差异,建立以不同出行方式为效用基础项的条件logit模型,验证了模型的有效性并对模型进行了标定,从多个角度对模型标定结果进行了分析。最后计算了各种出行方式对于各种因素的弹性值,分析了方式选择概率对于各种影响因素的敏感性。研究表明,小汽车出行方式对各种影响因素的敏感性较高,证明了从交通需求管理政策入手引导出行者从小汽车转向其他出行方式的可行性。 |
| 关 键 词： | 均匀设计 SP调查 出行方式选择 |
Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis of Travel Choice Based on Uniform Design and SP Survey |
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| JING Peng , JUAN Zhi-cai , JIA Ling-yu.Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis of Travel Choice Based on Uniform Design and SP Survey[J].Forecasting,2012,31(4):75-80. | |
| Authors: | JING Peng JUAN Zhi-cai JIA Ling-yu |
| Institution: | 1.Antai College of Economics & Management,Shanghai Jiaotong University,Shanghai 200052,China;2.School of Automobile and Traffic Engineering,Jiangsu University,Zhenjiang 212013,China;3.School of Economics and Management,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China) |
| Abstract: | This paper designed the SP survey constructed with uniform design method.Considering the factors that may be differented with the travelers and travel mode,the Logit model for two types basic utility of travel choice was established.The Logit model was verified and calibrated.Afterward,the calibration results of the model are analyzed from various aspects.Finally,the elasticity values for a variety of factors were analyzed the sensitivity of travel choice probabilities.Research shows that the sensitivity of using car for various factors affected is higher.The result proved that it is feasible to guide travelers to choose other travel modes instead of driving cars by the traffic demand management policies. |
| Keywords: | uniform design SP survey travel mode choice |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |