Determination of weak points based on risk theory and application to transmission network planning

In the traditional power transmission network planning, deterministic analysis methods are widely used. In such methods, all contingencies are deemed to have the same occurrence probability, which is not reasonable. In this paper, risk assessment is introduced to the process of transmission network planning considering the probabilistic characteristics of contingencies. Risk indices are given to determine the weak points of the transmission network based on local information, such as bus risk, line overload risk, contingency severity. The indices are calculated by the optimal cost control method based on risk theory, which can help planners to quickly determine weak points in the planning and find solution to them. For simplification, only line overload violation is considered. Finally, the proposed method is validated by an IEEE-RTS test system and a real power system in China from two aspects. In the first case, the original system is evaluated by the proposed method to find the weak points, and then four planning schemes are established, among which the best scheme is selected. In the second case, four initial planning schemes are established by combining the experiences of planners, and after the evaluation by using the proposed method, the best planning scheme is improved based on the information of weak points in the initial schemes, and the risk of improved scheme is reduced from 42 531.86 MW·h per year to 4 431.26 MW·h per year.