| 中国大陆、台湾、香港经济计量连接模型趋势模拟与政策建议 |
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| 引用本文： | 胡劲. 中国大陆、台湾、香港经济计量连接模型趋势模拟与政策建议[J]. 华侨大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 1998, 0(3) |
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| 作者姓名： | 胡劲 |
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| 作者单位： | 华侨大学工商管理系经济学 |
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| 基金项目： | 福建省自然科学基金!A97022 |
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| 摘 要： | 本研究用经济计量学方法，建立了3个中小型规模的中国大陆、台湾、香港的宏观经济计量模型，用投资矩阵和贸易矩阵连接起来，构造成一个总体性能较为良好的经济计量连接模型。模型仿真模拟了两岸三通实现与否、实现内容、时间前后的几种情况下，中国大陆、台湾、香港从1998—2010年的发展趋势，并提出了相应的政策建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 连接模型 仿真模拟 中国大陆 台湾 香港 |
An Economctric Linking Model for Chinese Mainland and Taiwan and Hong Kong:Trend and Simulation and Suggestion on Policy |
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| Hu Jin. An Economctric Linking Model for Chinese Mainland and Taiwan and Hong Kong:Trend and Simulation and Suggestion on Policy[J]. Journal of Huaqiao University(Humanities & Social Science), 1998, 0(3) |
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| Authors: | Hu Jin |
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| Abstract: | An econometric linking model with good entire performance is constructed forChinese mainland and Taiwan and Hong Kong by linking three small and medium scale onesfor the respective areas, which are linked by investment matrix and trade matrix. The linking model simulates the macroeconomy, especially the trend of development, of Chinesemainland and Taiwan and Hong Kong during foe preiod of 1998- 2010 under several circumstances of contacts, including trade relation and postal communication and navigation or airtraffic, between both sides of Taiwan Strait. Suggestions on policy are advanced correspondiugly. |
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| Keywords: | linking model simulation Chinese mainland Taiwan Hong Kong |
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