| 时间序列法在高校新生入学率预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘顺来,熊琪.时间序列法在高校新生入学率预测中的应用[J].深圳职业技术学院学报,2011,10(5):57-60. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘顺来 熊琪 |
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| 作者单位： | 广州航海高等专科学校,广东广州,510725 |
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| 基金项目： | 广州航海高等专科学校科研重点资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用平滑线散点图分析某高校招生部门提供的2005～2009年分省、直辖市所录取新生入学报到率历史数据，应用基于时间序列法的新生入学报到率预测模型预测了2010年14个省、直辖市新生入学报到率，与实际报到率相比较结果显示由模型预测出的2010年新生报到率绝大部分处于置信区间．该模型可为高校招生部门在各省、直辖市投放招生指标提供一种定量决策方法．
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| 关 键 词： | 时间序列法 新生入学率 预测模型 |
Application of Time Series in Freshmen Enrollment Rate Prediction |
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| LIU Shunlai,XIONG Qi.Application of Time Series in Freshmen Enrollment Rate Prediction[J].Journal of Shenzhen Polytechnic,2011,10(5):57-60. |
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| Authors: | LIU Shunlai XIONG Qi |
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| Institution: | LIU Shunlai,XIONG Qi(Guangzhou Maritime College,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510725,China) |
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| Abstract: | Scatter diagrams of smoothed lines are used to analyze enrollment rates of freshmen from different provinces and municipalities from 2005 to 2009 in a college. Enrollment rates of freshmen of 14 provinces and municipalities in 2010 are predicted based on time series. This model offers a quantitative approach to enrollment departments of colleges and universities to allocate enrollment quotas in different provinces and municipalities. |
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| Keywords: | time-series freshmen enrollment rate predicting model |
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