反宏观经济学教条——实际利率行为与长期期限结构分析

根据名义利率变动及其对投资与经济增长的影响区分出"狭义流动性陷阱"和"广义流动性陷阱",我国1997年底出现通货紧缩以后不存在两种意义的"流动性陷阱".将微观金融市场的利率期限结构方法引入中国长期经济波动和宏观分析,会发现经济周期上行和向下转折之后相关变量间分别存在通货膨胀率＞名义利率＞实际利率和通货膨胀率＜名义利率＜实际利率,其原因在于名义利率调节无论在时间和幅度上都落后于通货膨胀率变动.利率连续下调等货币政策操作对投资、产出、就业具有不可替代的积极效果,其传导机制包括增加企业利润、降低国债成本、改变经济主体预期、降低汇率升值压力并增加进口等.宏观经济学教科书中宣示"经济衰退期间货币政策无效"起因于误解凯恩斯而导致的"宏观经济学教条",应该予以摒弃.

A Counter-argument Against the Dogmatic Macro- economics——An Analysis about the Behavior of Real Interest Rate and Long Term- Structure

According to change of nominal interest rate and its effects on increase of economy and investment,we can differentiate "mobile trap in a narrow sense" from "that in a broad sense",which haven't occurred in our country since the outlay curtailment in 1997.Thus in terms of the structure of interest rate periods in micro financial market,a macro analysis of the long-term economic fluctuation in our country shows that the relative variables following the transition from rise to fall of economic operation periods distribute respectively in rate of inflation>nominal interest rate>actual interest rate and rate of inflation>nominal interest rate>actual interest rate,the reason of which lies in the adjustment of nominal interest rate falling behind the wave of inflation rate both in time and in scale.Financing policies like repeatedly reducing interest rate play an active role in investment,production and employment,let alone their extended functions,including increase of industrial profit,decrease of the cost of state debts,change of the anticipation of the economic subject,reduction of the pressure upon interest rate multiplication and increase of importation.The claim "the monetary policy makes no effect in time of economic depression" contributed by the macro-economics textbook is "a total dogmastic view of macro-economics" resulting from a misunderstanding of Cairns and should be adondaned.