Forecasting university enrollments by ratio smoothing

A smoothing model was applied to the transition ratios of the number of university students in successive time periods. Each application was conditional on the department and year of student. The model was trained and validated, using a single university for one, two, and three time periods in advance. Results showed a reasonable error under conditions of conservative testing. Further, some enrollment trends were made apparent within the university studied. Since the model was simple in conception, not difficult to apply, and the results may be applied to any level of aggregation in the institution, implementation prospects appear to be relatively good.