| 浙江省汛期降水量场的时空分布与神经网络模型分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵利刚.浙江省汛期降水量场的时空分布与神经网络模型分析[J].科技通报,2010,26(1):26-31. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵利刚 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京大学大气科学系,南京,210093 |
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| 摘 要： | 非线性统计是在短期气候诊断中被逐渐重视和运用的一种新兴方法，本文首先利用经验正交函数（EOF）对浙江省近40年的降水量场进行分析，结果表明，可以反演降水的时空分布，运用RBF神经网络模型对降水量场进行分析，模型输入的是汛期前期（12、1、2月）太平洋海温场、1月份的北半球500hPa高度场的扩展自然正交展开（EEOF）的前5个模态的时间系数，输出了浙江汛期降水场的经验正交展开的3个模态时间系数．通过对1996年浙江省12个代表站的试报，样本实验的随机预报技巧评分为0．167。这对浙江省汛期降水预报具有一定的参考价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 短期气候预测 降水量场 时空分布 经验正交函数 RBF |
Analysis on the Rain Field in the Flood Season of Zhejiang Province and Its Spatial and Temporal Distributions |
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| ZHAO Ligang.Analysis on the Rain Field in the Flood Season of Zhejiang Province and Its Spatial and Temporal Distributions[J].Bulletin of Science and Technology,2010,26(1):26-31. |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Ligang |
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| Institution: | Department of Atmospheric Sciences/a>;Nanjing University/a>;Nanjing 210093/a>;China |
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| Abstract: | Non linear statistics is a new method to be applied and becomes more and more taken into account in shortperiod climate prediction.In this paper,firstly,the empirical orthogonal function(EOF)is analyzed with rain field in flood season of zhejiang from 1957 to 1996,the results show that EOF can mirror the features of spatial and temporal distributions of the precipitation field.Secondly,RBF(radical basic function) artificial neural network is used to build study model to predict the rain field,the sea temper... |
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| Keywords: | short period climate prediction rain field spatial and temporal distributions EOF RBF |
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