| 经济下滑背景下的失业分析:规模、特点及对策 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 丁守海,刘昕. 经济下滑背景下的失业分析:规模、特点及对策[J]. 教学与研究, 2009, 0(1) |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 丁守海 刘昕 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院,北京,100872
2. 中国人民大学公共管理学院,北京,100872 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 中国人民大学中国宏观经济分析及预测项目，国家自然科学基金 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 本文首先利用面板数据模型分地区估算了中国非农产业的就业弹性.根据就业弹性的估算结果以及对不同产业下滑态势的判断,我们发现,本轮经济危机很可能会对东部地区第二产业和中西部地区服务业形成两轮就业冲击波.国民经济的就业拉动能力严重削弱.2009年就业形势十分严峻,程度可能会超过1998年的失业危机.作为第一次由市场力量引发的失业潮,本轮失业潮将表现出比以往更棘手的特点,尤其是失业焦点由体制内部门转向体制外部门甚至非正规部门,不仅使失业的冲击范围更广、底层群集性更强、民生危害更大,也使政府对失业的直接控制能力大大减弱.本轮失业潮要求政府在失业治理措施上探索出一条新的模式,特别是挖掘积极财政政策的失业治理功能.文章对此提出了相应的建议.
|
| 关 键 词： | 经济下滑 失业分析 政策建议 |
An Analysis of Unemployment under Circumstances of Economic Decrease: Scale,Characters,and Measures against |
| |
| DING Shou-hai,LIU Xin. An Analysis of Unemployment under Circumstances of Economic Decrease: Scale,Characters,and Measures against[J]. Teaching and Research, 2009, 0(1) |
| |
| Authors: | DING Shou-hai LIU Xin |
| |
| Affiliation: | 1.School of Agriculture and Rural Development;Renmin University of China;Beijing 100872;China;2.School of Public Administration;China |
| |
| Abstract: | The paper starts with an estimation of employment flexibility in industries other than agriculture in China.The data reveal that due to the distribution of employment flexibility,the current economic decrease will strike the second industry in the east and the third industry in the mid-west for two rounds.The year 2009 will witness a severe employment situation even worse than the unemployment crisis in 1998.This round of unemployment is the first wave of unemployment facilitated by the market with the foll... |
| |
| Keywords: | economic decrease analysis of unemployment suggestion for policy-making |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
