武汉市经济增长与节能双重约束下的发展模式研究

本文以<武汉市国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年总体规划纲要>为例,探讨在战略环境中,如何评价区域层次的能源与社会、经济发展关系,构建能源需求量的完全分解模型来研究影响能源需求量变化的因素.通过对武汉市1995年～2005年的历史数据的研究,发现经济增长和技术进步是影响武汉市能源需求量变化的主要因素,以这2个因素作为主要调控变量,设计6种发展模式(包括<武汉市国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年总体规划纲要>提供的发展模式),并预测这6种模式下的GDP、能源需求量和单位GDP能耗,预测结果表明:模式4是既能实现节能目标,又能实现社会、经济快速增长的较佳发展模式.最后,结合武汉市的实际情况,论证了模式4的可行性,并根据这些研究结果提出具体的建议.

Development Models Under the Double Resteraint of Economic Growth and Energy Conservation in Wuhan City

When a Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) is carried out, how the problem of energy is resolved? Under the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Act 2003, the first group of 11 SEAs for typical administrative areas was carried out in China. However, these assessments only analyzed the relations between energy supply and demand. Obviously, these analyses were not enough to meet the requirements of decision-makers, who need developmental models that can not only promote economic growth but also save energy.Since the beginning of the 1980s, a number of decomposition models have been used to conduct causal analysis of the changing characteristics of energy consumption. It is generally believed that the change of energy consumption is mainly influenced by the scale of economic activities, technology level and economic structure. However, there is a common problem in the general decomposition models- the residual term. In some models, the residual is omitted and it causes a major estimation error, while in some models the residuals are regarded as an interaction which still leaves questions for the users. A complete decomposition model is introduced in this paper to solve these problems.A strategic environmental assessment for the outline of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan for the economic and social development in Wuhan of Hubei Province is performed. The main content of this research is to study the relationship between energy, society and economy at regional level. The factors affecting the changes of energy demand are researched by using the complete decomposition model. The data of Wuhan from 1995 to 2005 are used to quantitatively analyze the influencing factors in the change of energy demand. It is suggested that economic development and technological progress are the main factors affecting the changes of energy demand in Wuhan. Then, these two factors are taken as the main regulative variables. Six developmental models are designed, including the developmental model for the outline of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan for the economic and social development of Wuhan. GDP, energy demand and energy consumption per unit GDP are calculated in the six development models. The result proves that the forth model is the most satisfactory and it is also feasible according to the actual situation in Wuhan. At last, some proposals are put forward on the basis of the research results.