制度视角下中国资源型海外投资区域风险研究

为解释中国资源型海外投资频遭政治干预而失败的现状,本文针对资源型投资行业敏感性,结合制度发展水平、双边政治和资源属性对中国资源型海外投资区域风险进行创新性评估。利用智能聚类法和AHP模型对44个主要投资东道国制度、政治敏感度和资源风险分散能力分析发现,中国资源型海外投资在不同制度发展水平的国家受不同风险因子影响,并且两国间政治敏感度显著调整着区域风险的实际发生水平。本文认为资源型海外投资的风险防范,在制度发展水平较高的国家应主要关注政治敏感问题引起的突发性风险,而在制度发展较低的国家则应事前充分评估经济和社会层面的风险及资源风险分散化。

The regional risk of Chinese resource - typed OFDI from institutional perspective

In order to explain the international political dilemma of Outward Foreign Direct Investment (OFDI) from China, especially considering the sensitivity of resource-typed investment, institutional development level is combined with bilateral political relationship and resource diversification for reexamining the regional risk. By using intelligent clustering method and AHP model, an analysis on institution, political sensitivity, and resource diversification capability of 44 host countries with the major investment from China is given to estimate the interactive effect. And the result indicates that Chinese resource-typed OFDI in the countries with different institutional development level is affected by different risk factors, the political sensitivity between two counties plays a very significant role. It is suggested that Chinese investors should focus on the unexpected risks caused by political sensitivity in the countries with high institution development level, in the meanwhile fully assess the risks from economic and social scope as well as resource diversification in the countries with low institution development level.