上海市宝山区现代服务业发展规模预测

现代服务业的发达程度是衡量经济、社会现代化水平的重要标志之一.在经济全球化和国际产业转移背景下,宝山区行政建制调整、企业活动外置以及产业升级的需要都要求加快发展现代服务业,以促进区域产业结构升级和提高区域竞争力.文章在分析宝山区现代服务业发展现状基础上,运用灰色时间序列预测方法对宝山区未来五年现代服务业发展规模进行预测,并从发展环境、收入水平、依托产业发展水平、投资规模、人才等方面定性分析了宝山区现代服务业的发展潜力并认为预测目标是具有可行性的且与宝山区“十一五”规划的发展目标基本一致.

Forecast on the Development Scale of Modern Service Industry in Baoshan District in Shanghai

Modern service industry system is influenced by many factors,including fixed economic factors and uncertain factors,so it is a grey system and accordingly grey forecasting methods can be used to predict its prospect.Based on an analysis of its status quo and causes in Baoshan District,the paper forecasts the development scale of modern service industry within five years by time-sequence grey forecasting methods.The results show that the estimated goals are of feasibility and in agreement with the aims of the Eleventh Five-year Plan established in Baoshan.