我国创业投资与高技术产业关系的量化测度研究

"发展高技术,实现产业化"是我国的既定国策。高技术产业的发展为创业投资提供了发展的土壤,而创业投资也逐渐成为高技术产业增长的重要支撑。然而,创业投资对高技术产业的提升究竟有多大贡献,二者之间是否具有一定的相互关联,是否具有互为因果的关系,不能仅仅凭定性的分析方法,还需要一种定量化的方法来加以证明。本文运用计量经济学中的时间序列分析理论、Granger因果关系检验法和相关分析等原理,从定量的角度,通过实际数据,建立经济数学模型,分析并论证了创业投资和高技术产业的相关关系、因果关系,并得出结论创业投资与高技术产业存在着较高的相关度,但是有一定的滞后性;高技术产业的发展是推动创业投资业发展的重要原因,而且其变化要发生在创业投资业之前,反过来则不成立。

The Empirical Research on the Relation between Venture Capital and High-tech in China

"Develop high-tech, and realize industrialization" is the national policy of our country. It can be said that the development of high-tech industry has provided the growing space and soil for venture capital industry, meanwhile, and venture capital industry also gradually becomes the important support of high-tech industry growth. However, whether it exists the theoretic relation between venture capital and high-tech exists, whether it can be proved by practical data, we must test it by quantitative method. This paper adopts the basic principles of econometrics, such as the time series analysis theory, Granger causality test and correlation, and so on.By the actual data, it sets up the economic mathematics model, and analyzes and proves the correlation and causality between venture capital and high-tech.By simulation, we draw a conclusion and there is higher correlation degree between venture capital and high-tech. Nevertheless, it needs the certain lag; the development of high-tech industry is the important cause of the development of venture capital, and its change happens before the change of venture capital.However, it will not come into existence if we exchange the two variables.