行业减排的优先次序与差别对策研究

确定行业二氧化碳减排的优先次序并实施差别对策对减排目标的实现具有重要意义。本文基于投入产出Ghosh模型和敏感性分析,从结构减排、技术减排两个方面,提出了国家或区域行业二氧化碳减排优先次序确定的一般方法。将该方法应用到中国行业减排,采用2002年和2012年全国投入产出表和行业碳排放数据,依据各行业的经济增长贡献率、感应度系数、边际增长的完全碳排放量、二氧化碳排放强度年均下降率和二氧化碳排放强度-增加值弹性5个代表性指标,确定行业减排的优先次序,并提出差别的减排对策建议。结果表明：在考察的40个行业中,技术减排优先级I的行业包括非金属矿物制品业在内共18个,结构性减排优先级I的行业包括石油和天然气开采业在内共13个,针对行业技术减排和结构减排的三级优先次序,可以确定四类减排对策。应用研究一方面证明了本文设计的一般方法的实用性和科学性,另一方面为中国制定分行业的减排政策提供了参考。

Sector order and different strategies to reduce CO2 emissions

Sectors’ CO₂ emissions is one of the largest drivers of accelerated global warming and China needs to urgently face this environmental issue. The mitigating order of sector and development countermeasures are significant for mitigating CO₂ emissions. Promoting industrial structural upgrades and environmental technology are two important approaches currently used by China to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. Here,from the aspects of structural adjustment and technological progress,a general framework for the mitigating order of sector and development countermeasures was innovated to mitigate CO₂ emissions and release environmental pressures. This study was based on the Ghosh input-output model and sensitivity analysis. We analyzed all sectors in China and combined them into 40 sectors,adopted an input-output table for 2002 and 2012,and CO₂ emission data. In order to better control growth in CO₂ emission from sectors we analyzed five typical sector indicators. We found that technological progress should be preferentially carried out in 18 sectors(including nonmetal mineral products) to reduce emissions;13 sectors （including oil and gas extraction）,should limit development speed because this would have a large effect on emissions and low economic impact. We arrived at four countermeasures. On the one hand,further applied research has proven the practicality and scientificity of this general method;and on the other hand it provides a solid foundation for government and reference of emission reduction policies to adjust industrial structure,develop environmental technology and reduce carbon emissions. The method here is applicable to many countries and regions that want to achieve a low carbon economy.