基于结构基本预算缺口的我国财政政策可持续性检验

本文利用基于新凯恩斯型动态模型的状态空间模型对潜在产出和产出缺口进行估计，并利用估计结果计算出政府财政预算中的结构性成分和周期性成分：通过财政预算的结构性成分来构建我国的结构基本预算缺口指标，并借此对财政政策的可持续性进行定量检验，结果表明，我国目前的财政政策不具有可持续性，这进一步说明了政府采取的由扩张的财政政策向中性财政政策的过渡是正确的：

Test on Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in China Based on Structural Primary Gap

In this paper, potential output and output gap in China are estimated by neo - Keynesian dynamic model. Structural budget balance and cyclical budget balance are estimated with the results above, with which we calculate the indicator of structural primary gap. According to the sustainahility test of fiscal policy, we know that fiscal policy at present is unsustainable, which suggests that it is right for our government to turn the expansionary fiscal policy to the neutral one.