| 基于STIRFDT模型的海洋交通运输业碳排放预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 纪建悦,孔胶胶.基于STIRFDT模型的海洋交通运输业碳排放预测研究[J].科技管理研究,2012,32(6):79-81. |
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| 作者姓名： | 纪建悦 孔胶胶 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国海洋大学经济学院,山东青岛,266100 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国海洋发展研究中心海大专项“海洋交通运输业的碳排放及其低碳发展路径研究”(AOCOUC201005) |
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| 摘 要： | 在借鉴经典碳排放的STIRPAT模型的思想的基础上,提出核算海洋交通运输业的STIRFDT模型,在此基础上,运用中国远洋相关数据对模型参数进行估计,以我国海洋交通运输业的数据,运用情景模拟,对我国海洋交通运输业的碳排放的数值及峰值进行预测,并提出减排的对策建议.
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| 关 键 词： | STIRFDT模型 情景分析 碳排放 海洋交通运输业 |
Prediction Research on Carbon Emissions of Marine Transportation Based on STIRFDT Model |
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| JI Jianyue
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KONG Jiaojiao.Prediction Research on Carbon Emissions of Marine Transportation Based on STIRFDT Model[J].Science and Technology Management Research,2012,32(6):79-81. |
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| Authors: | JI Jianyue KONG Jiaojiao |
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| Institution: | (Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China) |
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| Abstract: | In this paper we use the thought of the classic STIRPAT model for carbon emissions for reference,and propose the accounting STIRFDT model of marine traffic transportation.On this basis,using the Chinese ocean’s related data,we estimate the parameters of the mode.Finally we make the scenario analysis based on the data of China’s ocean transportation,forecast the carbon emissions numerical and peak of China’s ocean transportation and put forward the suggestions to cut emissions. |
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| Keywords: | STIRFDT model scenario analysis carbon emissions marine transportation |
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