| 基于潜在产出的电力供给缺口度量研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 任玉珑,吴文建,尹新哲.基于潜在产出的电力供给缺口度量研究[J].软科学,2012(1):25-29,35. |
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| 作者姓名： | 任玉珑 吴文建 尹新哲 |
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| 作者单位： | 重庆大学经济与工商管理学院;四川外语学院国际商学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 美国福特国际合作项目(1042012920090885);2011年中央高校基本科研业务费个人项目(CDJXS11020006) |
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| 摘 要： | 从潜在产出角度对电力供给缺口概念进行界定,并采用潜在产出常用测度方法——HP滤波法测算中国1980～2009年的电力供给缺口,借助Granger因果检验法对电力供给缺口与经济波动关系进行验证。结果表明电力供给缺口与经济波动(考虑通胀)互为因果关系,根据潜在产出分析思路估算电力供给缺口是有效合理的。
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| 关 键 词： | 潜在产出 电力供给 缺口 HP滤波法 |
Research on the Estimation of Power Supply Gap Based on Potential Output Theory |
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| REN Yu-long,WU Wen-jian,YIN Xin-zhe.Research on the Estimation of Power Supply Gap Based on Potential Output Theory[J].Soft Science,2012(1):25-29,35. |
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| Authors: | REN Yu-long WU Wen-jian YIN Xin-zhe |
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| Institution: | 1.School of Business Administration,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400030; 2.School of International Business,Sichuan International Studies University,Chongqing 400031) |
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| Abstract: | From the perspective of potential output,this paper defines the concept of power supply gap,and uses HP Filter to estimate Chinese electricity supply gap from 1980 to 2009.It verifies the relationship between power supply gap and economic fluctuations with the Granger causality.The results show that the electricity supply gap and economic fluctuation(considering inflation) are mutually reinforcing,and the research method of power supply gap with potential output theory is valid. |
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| Keywords: | potential output power supply gap HP Filter |
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