| 非常规突发水灾害事件动态应急决策模式探讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 王慧敏,刘高峰,佟金萍,仇蕾.非常规突发水灾害事件动态应急决策模式探讨[J].软科学,2012(1):20-24. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王慧敏 刘高峰 佟金萍 仇蕾 |
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| 作者单位： | 河海大学管理科学研究所;河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室;河海大学商学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(90924027,50979024);国家社会科学基金项目(10AJY005,10CGL069);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(09YJC790125);博士后基金项目(20100471372);河海大学博士启动基金项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 以复杂性科学为指导,提出了基于情景依赖的非常规突发水灾害事件动态应急决策模式。不同情景下,水灾害事件中的多个应急主体在强互惠者的统一指挥和协调下,通过沟通、适应、协同等规则进行自适应演化,形成以政府为主导、多主体无缝合作的共识方案,实现和支持"情景—沟通—合作—共识/认同—行动"的动态应急决策过程。以淮河流域极端洪水灾害为例,建立了淮河流域极端洪水灾害动态应急决策模式,旨在最快、最大限度地降低洪灾损失,确保灾区人民生命和财产安全。
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| 关 键 词： | 非常规突发水灾害事件 情景 动态应急决策 强互惠 协同演化 |
Study on Dynamic Emergency Decision-making Mode of Unconventional Water Disaster |
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| WANG Hui-mina,b,LIU Gao-fenga,c,TONG Jin-pinga,b,QIU Lei.Study on Dynamic Emergency Decision-making Mode of Unconventional Water Disaster[J].Soft Science,2012(1):20-24. |
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| Authors: | WANG Hui-mina b LIU Gao-fenga c TONG Jin-pinga b QIU Lei |
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| Institution: | a,b(a.Institute of Management Science;b.State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering; c.Business School,Hohai University,Changzhou 213022) |
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| Abstract: | A dynamic emergency decision-making mode of Unconventional Water Disaster Emergencies(UWDE) based on scenarios is proposed with the guidance of complexity sciences.In different scenarios,multi agents in UWDE evolve self-adapting by communication,adaptation and cooperation under the coordination and command of strong reciprocity agents.The purpose is to form a consensus plan with government leading and multi-agent seamless cooperation,and realize and support dynamic emergency decision-making process of "scenario-communication-cooperation-consensus-action".Finally,an example of extreme flood emergency in Huaihe River Basin is presented to reduce flood loss fastest and maximally and guarantee the safety of lives and property. |
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| Keywords: | Unconventional Water Disaster Emergencies(UWDE) scenario dynamic emergency decision-making strong reciprocity co-evolution |
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