太湖流域1960s年代营养物质输移的模拟评估研究

本文通过数理统计、动力模拟等方法，结合社会经济的统计资料，确定了1960s的工业点源排放、土地利用数据等模拟的数据输入，利用分布式机理性的流域模型SWAT，模拟了太湖流域1960s年代的营养物质输移的时空分布，并在敏感性试验的基础上，对营养物质输移的影响因子进行了分析，从而得出了1960s营养物质输移的时空分布基本态势。研究结果表明，在工业点源、生活污水、牲畜养殖、农业化肥和土壤营养本底等五个敏感性因子中，生活污水对入湖营养物质的贡献最大；非点源形式排放的营养物质（总氮和总磷）约占入湖总量的3/4，是流域营养物质排放的主要形式；同时，结果还表明，人类活动造成的营养物质排放是太湖流域营养盐入湖总量的主要来源。

A modeling-based assessment study on nutrients transport in Taihu basin during 1960s

After industrial pollution in point source, land use/cover and other data in 1960s for SWAT model were estimated by statistical and modeling methods, spatial-temporal distribution of nutrient transport in Taihu Basin during 1960s was simulated and the effort factors of nutrient transport were analyzed using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool)model. The simulation results show that total nitrogen (TN) from external sources of nutrients into Taihu Lake in one year is less than 10000t, total phosphorus less than 1000t. The maximum of TP spatial distribution is located in Zhexi Region and the maximum of TN spatial distribution is located in Huxi Region. The results of sensitivity tests show that sewerage, which is one of five sensitivity factors (sewerage, industrial sources, livestock drainage, soil nutrients and losses of fertilizers in drained agricultural lands), has the max contribution to nutrients into Taihu Lake, 35.6% for TN, 38.4% for TP. are more than nutrients from other sources. The NPS is main form of external sources of nutrients into Lake Taihu, which contributes 76.6% and 74.8% of TN and TP respectively. Human activity has an important effort to nutrient transport into Taihu Lake.