1980-2012年安徽淮北平原冬小麦灌浆期连阴雨灾害风险分析

利用1980-2012年淮北平原冬小麦开花至成熟期间的气象资料及其单产、种植面积和耕地面积等资料,采用主成分分析法构建连阴雨综合致灾因子,采用有序样本最优聚类方法进行致灾等级划分,综合连阴雨致灾强度、灾损率和冬小麦对连阴雨的敏感性及其抗灾能力,建立冬小麦灌浆期连阴雨灾害综合风险指数(R)并进行了风险区划。结果表明,淮北平原冬小麦灌浆期连阴雨致灾等级为轻、中、重、特重4个等级,对应的阈值(D)分别为0.0D≤0.20、0.20D≤0.40、0.40D≤0.6、0.60D≤1.0。灌浆期连阴雨灾害综合风险划分为低、中、高和特高4个风险区,R对应阈值分别为R≤0.25、0.25R≤0.50、0.50R≤0.75和R0.75,其中:特高风险区主要分布在南部沿淮的阜南、颍上县内,平原中部大部分区域为高风险区,中部偏北和平原东南部与江苏省接壤的小区域为中风险区,砀山和亳州北部乡镇为低风险区。

An analysis of disaster risk for continuous cloudy-rainy weather during the filling stage of winter wheat on the Huaibei Plain,Anhui

Continuous cloudy-rainy weather has a direct impact on the high and stable yield of winter wheat. The study of disaster risk zoning can provide a basis for the management of disasters. Based on meteorological data from blossom to maturity and winter wheat yield,planting area and cultivated area from 1980 to 2012,we established a comprehensive risk index for continuous cloudy-rainy weather disasters for winter wheat. The disaster grade was given according to the optimal cluster of ordered sample. The comprehensive risk index during the filling stage of winter wheat was also established in terms of the continuous cloudy-rainy weather occurrence intensity,disaster damage rate,sensitivity and defense ability,and it was followed by weather disaster regionalization of winter wheat in the filling stage on the Huaibei Plain. The results showed the weather risk has a light,middle,heavy grade and severe grade,with a threshold value of (0,0.20),(0.20,0.40),(0.40,0.60) and (0.60,1.0),respectively. There are four comprehensive risk divisions of the continuous cloudy-rainy weather for low,middle,high and ultra-high value during the filling stage. The ultra-high value area of comprehensive risk is mainly distributed south of the Huaihe River around Funan,Yingshang. Most of the area in the central plain had a high value weather risk. The moderate risk area was located in the north central region and small parts near Jiangsu province. The northern town in Dangshan and Bozhou county are low risk areas. Disaster risk divisioning provides a basis for disaster risk management of continuous cloudy-rainy during the filling stage of winter wheat across the Huaibei Plain.