近50年赤峰市耕地动态变化研究

论文利用近50年来长序列统计资料对赤峰市耕地动态变化进行了研究，结果发现：1950年-2000年赤峰市耕地总量经历了3个增长期和2个减少期；耕地变化除具有以全市总量变化为代表的普遍特征外，南部和中北部具有明显的区域差异，主要表现为，50年来，与中北部各旗（县）相比，以敖汉旗为代表的南部3旗（县）耕地相对变化率较小，但1961年-1990年耕地减幅较大；通过文献调研和定量研究得知，50年来赤峰市耕地变化主要受5次大的政策因素驱动，并与人均国内生产总值、总人口、年末牲畜存栏总头数、粮食单产和人均粮食占有量等人口和经济发展因素显著相关。

CHANGES OF CULTIVATED LAND USE IN CHIFENG DURING THE PAST 50 YEARS

Based upon the analysis of statistical data in the past fifty years, changes of cultivated land use in Chifeng was studied in this paper. It indicated that the cultivated land area had experienced three increasing phases and two decreasing phases in Chifeng from 1950 to 2000. Besides the general trend represented by change of the total cultivated land area, there was significant regional differentiation between the southern and central northern Chifeng. That is, the relative change index of the cultivated land use in southern areas is relative lower than that of in the central and northern counties. It was also presented that the dominant period for cultivated land decrease within southern region was from 1961 to 1990. Therefore, the main factors resulted in the cultivated land use changes within this region were explored. According to historical documents, it was suggested that concerned policy change was the main cause bringing about the land use changes in this region. Furthermore, there existed significant correlation between the change of cultivated land area and per capita GDP, total population, total livestock at the year end, yield of grain per hectare, as will as per capita grain yield. It can be concluded both the demand for cultivated land use and the decrease of cultivated land areas resulted from degradation were increasing. The conflict between cultivated land supply and demand was the main driving force of the cultivated land use changes in Chifeng during the past 50 years.