中国铬资源供应风险评价与对策研究

铬是生产不锈钢的重要原料,作为中国的紧缺矿产,铬资源的供应安全关系到不锈钢产业的稳定发展。对当前中国铬资源供应风险进行评价,识别其在供应安全方面存在的主要风险点及风险程度,有助于提出针对性的风险治理建议。为此,本研究整理了2000—2016年中国和全球的铬储量、产量、消费量、贸易量、价格、回收率及国家风险指数等数据,从资源、市场和政治三个维度选取评价指标,对供应风险进行直观的量化分级评价。供应风险主要体现在资源保障度低、对外依存度高、二次回收水平低、市场话语权较弱、进口集中度高和地缘政治风险大等6个方面。结合风险评价结果,本文提出了相关风险治理建议：推动国内企业到境外投资参股开发矿产资源;加大对含铬废品资源的回收再利用,加强对不锈钢废料的熔解技术研究;国家对铬资源进行必要的储备,稳定市场预期,提高资源保障能力。

Risk assessment and countermeasures of chromiumresource supply in China

Chromium is an important raw material in the production of stainless steel. Given China’s scarce mineral resources, the safety of chromium resource supply has a bearing on the steady development of the stainless steel industry. It is essential to determine the main risks and risk levels when assessing current supply risks of chromium resources in China. Here, we selected appropriate indicators from three the aspects of resource, market and politics and collected data on reserves, production, consumption, international trade, price, rate of recovery and World Governance Index from 2000 to 2016. We introduce the pattern of quantitative classified evaluation to assess supply risks using the method of multi index comprehensive evaluation. We found that the supply risks mainly include serious shortage of China’s chromium resources, increasing degree of dependence on foreign trade, low rates of recovery, weak market power, a high import concentration and great geostrategic risk. Enterprises should be promoted to invest and develop overseas resources as a high priority. It is necessary to increase the rate of recovery of chromium waste materials and strengthen the melting technology of stainless steel scraps. The central government should establish a reserve system of chromium resources to stabilize market expectations and improve the support capacity of chromium resources.