中国铁矿石资源供应风险评价与治理研究

由于中国国内铁矿资源禀赋的约束,中国高度依赖进口铁矿的局面将长期存在。为了保证中国铁矿资源的供应安全,已有研究重点从中国铁矿石资源供需、贸易或定价的某一维度深入分析铁矿石资源供应风险,较少同时考虑供需、贸易和定价的综合性供应风险,相应地缺乏多维主体的铁矿石供应风险综合治理措施。本研究采用BGR-VW方法,基于2000—2015年中国铁矿石时间序列数据,从当前市场风险、资源风险、政治风险、市场权力、未来供需趋势等5个方面对中国铁矿石供应资源供应风险进行了综合评价。结果表明,中国铁矿石资源供应风险主要存在于资源和政治风险,综合风险等级处于紧张状态。最后,本文以实现铁矿石资源可持续供给为最终目标,从全球层面、区域层面和国家层面的多维主体分别提出相应治理措施。

Risk assessment and management of iron ore resource supply in China

Because of endowment constraints in China’s domestic iron ore resources, China is highly dependent on iron ore imports. This situation will continue for a long time. In order to secure the supply of iron ore resources in China, research has emphasised Chinese iron ore resource supply and demand, international trade or pricing mechanism and their influence, and analysed iron ore resource supply risk. However, comprehensive analysis of supply and demand, trade and the pricing mechanism at the same time is uncommon, and this has resulted in a lack of multi-dimensional measures for the integrated management of iron ore supply risk in China. Here, we applied the BGR-VW method and the latest data set for China’s iron ore resources from 2000 to 2015, to comprehensively evaluate iron ore resource supply risk from five aspects: the current market risk, resource risk, political risk, market power and the future trend of supply and demand. We found that China’s iron ore resource supply risk mainly exists in resource risk and political risk, and the comprehensive level of risk is in a state of tension. We discuss comprehensive management measures for iron ore resource supply risk considering multidimensional bodies including the global level, regional level and national level, and from each dimension propose reasonable suggestions respectively in order to realize the sustainable supply of iron ore resources in China.