中国劳动力转移对森林转型的影响

森林转型理论阐述了几百年来各国实现森林恢复的路径与机制。改革开放以来,中国不断融入经济全球化的进程,成为全球经济增长最为显著、同时森林生态大幅改善的国家,为维护全球生态安全作出重要贡献,经济全球化背景下中国社会经济与森林生态协调发展的规律和经验需要进一步探索与总结。本文对森林转型的理论进行扩展,基于1981—2010年的省际面板数据,考虑到变量间的空间依赖性,采用GMM方法和空间面板模型对劳动力转移对森林转型的影响进行研究。结果表明,中国森林数量与森林质量变化的驱动力有所不同。改革开放以来中国政府采取的大规模营林公共投资是森林面积恢复最主要的原因。然而,由于新造林的蓄积量较低,森林面积增长的同时也伴随着短期平均森林密度的下降。而中国对外贸易发展、尤其是沿海地区出口导向型经济的成长,引发内陆到沿海地区的劳动力转移,减轻森林资源集中的内陆林区对森林资源的生计消耗,成为促进中国森林密度提高与森林质量改善的最显著因素。

Influence of labor transfer on China's forest transition

Forest transition theory elucidates the pathways and mechanisms of the national forest restoration in the past hundreds of years. China has integrated into the global economy since the opening up, embraced a rapid economic growth and forest ecological improvement, and contributed greatly to the global ecological security. Meanwhile, little academic attention has been paid to elaborate the successful experiences of harmonious development between socio-economic and forest ecology against the background of economic globalization. This study extended the theoretical framework of forest transition. Based on the provincial panel data during the period of 1981-2010, considering the spatial correlation between variables, this study explored the impact of and labor migration on forest transition by applying GMM and spatial panel models. The results suggest that the massive afforestation public investment by Chinese government is the main driver of reforestation since the opening up. However, the average forest density decreases at the same time, as new saplings have the low forest volume. The development of China's foreign trade, especially the growth of export-oriented economy in coastal area has triggered labor migrations from inland China to coastal regions. This reduces the consumption of forest resources in inland forest regions, which emerged to be the most significant factor that improves forest quality in China.