四川省城市化进程中容许耕地非农转化量研究

城市化对耕地需求的增加与耕地稀缺性的矛盾是土地利用规划急需解决的重要问题,科学合理地确定城市化进程中容许耕地非农转化的数量具有重要的意义.以四川省为例,运用SPSS软件的回归分析法论证了城市化与耕地非农化之间具有显著的相关性,说明了城市化是耕地非农化的重要因素.并进一步建立了四川省城市化进程中容许耕地非农转化量模型,计算结果表明,到2030年四川省最多容许耕地非农转化的数量为93.05×10^4hm^2,超过这一阈值将威胁到四川省粮食安全和经济社会的可持续发展,从而为四川省制定合理的土地利用规划提供了参考依据.

On Conversion Quantity of Nonfarm Land during Urbanization in Sichuan

The Contradiction between the increasing demand of urbanization and the security land is an important issue to be solved, it has an important significance to scientifically and rationally determine the number of cultivated land resources which could be non - agriculturally transformed in the process of urbanization, we demonstrate that there has a significant correlation between urbanization and non -agricultural transformation in Sichuan Province by the regression analysis of the SPSS software, through that we can indicate that urbanization is an important factor in the conversion of cultivated land, we constructed a model of the amount of non - agricultural farmland conversion in the process of urbanization in Sichuan Province, and calculated the maximum allowable number that will be converted into non - agricultural farmland is 44. 529 ×10^4hm^2 by 2030, it means that above this threshold will threaten the food security and sustainable economic development of Sichuan Province, thus provide a reference for the development of rational land - use planning in Sichuan Province.