对工程风险认知的主观贝叶斯分析

风险是不确定的危险，可以表示为事件发生概率及其后果的函数。工程风险具有复杂性，因此，工程风险是多个不确定性因素发生的概率及其后果的函数。对工程风险存在认知偏差，我们通过对工程风险的认知偏差中的主观概率进行分析，从而解释在对工程风险的认知中公众对风险的认知与实际的客观风险之间存在差距；专家和公众对风险的认知存在差异；不同个体对风险的认知差异；个体对风险认知会改变；个体对风险认知最终趋同等现象。

Subjective Bayesian Analysis of Cognitive Bias in Engineering Risks

Risk is uncertain danger. The event can be expressed as a function of the probability of occurrence and consequences. Engineering risk is complex which is the function of several sources of uncertainty and the probability of occurrence and their consequences. We should take the holistic perspective of engineering risk. The subjective risk is not equal to the objective risk. We adopt the theory of subjective Bayes＇ theorem to analyze cognitive bias to show that different subjects have different opinions, for example, different experts have different opinions on a same engineering risk, expert and public opinions are different, etc. Furthermore, individual perceptions of risk will change and eventually converge. We use extended theories of subjective Bayes, Donald Gillies＇ intersubjective probability to explain those phenomena.