面向多目标情景的大清河流域水资源利用权衡

大清河流域是中国人水关系最为紧张的流域之一,也是推进京津冀区域协调发展的关键地域。针对未来不同发展情景,研究流域水资源利用的可能矛盾和应对策略,对于保障流域可持续发展至关重要。本文以大清河流域水土资源定量评估为依据,以水-土-粮-人关系为纽带,研究了在惯性发展、休耕政策、农田节水3种情景下,流域水-粮关系的演变特征,提出了大清河流域水-粮权衡优化方案。研究表明：①大清河流域在当前土地利用结构下,粮食生产可实现自给略有盈余,但过多的农业生产耗水导致大清河流域地下水超采严重。②尽管已在大清河流域探索实施休耕政策,但当前局部休耕节约的水资源量远不及地下水超采量。若要实现控制地下水超采并使流域供需水平衡,需继续在白洋淀东部和南部平原扩大冬小麦休耕面积25.3万hm²,或从流域外增加引调水量7.2亿m³。③到2030年大清河流域将面临粮食安全和水资源安全的双重压力,水资源缺口将达13.8亿m³。为缓解流域水资源压力,未来需加大跨流域调水力度;同时,继续扩大冬小麦休耕面积也是缓解流域水资源矛盾的重要政策选项。

Multi-scenario trade-off on water resources utilization in the Daqing River Basin

As a key area for the coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region in China, the Daqing River Basin has a tense population-water resource relationship, and it is important to examine the possible conflicts and countermeasures of water resource utilization in the area to ensure the sustainable development of the basin. Based on the quantitative evaluation of water and soil resources in the Daqing River Basin and the relationship among water, soil, grain production, and people, this study explored the characteristics of change of water-grain production relationship under the three scenarios of inertia development, fallow policy, and water saving, and proposed the water-grain production trade-off optimization scheme in the basin. The results show that under the current land use structure, the Daqing River Basin can be self-sufficient with grains with a small surplus, but excessive water consumption in agricultural production makes groundwater overdraft a serious problem. Although the policy of cropland fallow has been implemented in the basin, the amount of water resources saved is far less than that of groundwater overdraft. In order to control groundwater overdraft and balance water supply and demand in the basin, it is necessary to expand the fallow area of winter wheat in the eastern and southern plain of the Baiyangdian Lake by 25.3×10⁴ hm², or increase the water diversion by 7.2×10⁸ m³. By 2030 the Daqing River Basin will face the dual pressure of food security and water resource security when the water resource gap of basin reaches 13.8×10⁸ m³. It is necessary to increase the inter basin water transfer in the future and expand the fallow area of winter wheat to alleviate the shortage of water resources in the basin.