经济平稳增长下中美波三国碳排放趋势的比较

由于碳排放趋势影响未来的气候变化趋势，也是各国进行减排谈判的基础，因此得到了公众和政府的普遍关注。本文运用碳排放动力学模型，预测了不同经济发展水平下中国、美国、波兰三国2009年-2050年的能源碳排放量，并对三国碳排放总量分别进行了情景分析。结果表明：①三国碳排放量都呈现先升后降的趋势，中、美、波分别在2035年，2022年，2032年达到碳排放高峰；②三国能源强度和碳排放强度都趋于下降，中国波兰两国下降速率较快，美国下降速率较慢；③未来能源结构中，中国和波兰的能源结构较相似，煤炭比例占绝对优势，其次为石油，天然气，非碳能源；美国的能源结构较为合理，石油占比最大，其次为煤，天然气和非碳；④中、关、波三国人均碳排放量差距较大，美国人均碳排放量在三国最高，但三国人均碳排放量最终都呈下降趋势；⑤在欧盟目标下，中，美，波三国碳排放总量降幅并不明显，而在哥本哈根会议背景下，中国完全能提前实现碳排放强度比2005年下降40％。45％这一目标。而基于2005年的碳排放水平，2050年中国要实现减排50％的难度非常大。美、波两国如不实施减排措施，其碳排放量将保持上升，实现目标的难度将更大。

Comparison of the Trends of Carbon Emissions between China, America and Poland Under Steady Economic Growth

The trend of carbon emission is widely concerned by the public and governments because it is an influence factor to the future climate change trend as well as the foundation of negotiation on emission reduction among countries. In this paper, we have predicted the energy-induced carbon emissions of China, U.S. and Poland during 2009-2050 under their different economic development levels with the dynamical model of carbon emission and conducted scenario analysis of the gross carbon emissions of the three countries. The results indicate that: 1) The carbon emissions for all these three countries demonstrate a similar inverted U-shaped trend and the peak years for China, U.S. and Poland are 2035, 2022 and 2032 respectively; 2) The energy intensity and carbon intensity of China, U.S. and Poland all tend to decline, and the decline rate of China and Poland are much faster than that of U.S.; 3) China and Poland have similar future energy structure among which the share of coal is absolutely large, followed by oil, natural gas and non-carbon energy. U.S. has a relatively reasonable energy structure among which oil occupies the largest share, followed by coal, natural gas and the non-carbon energy; 4) The discrepancy of per capita carbon emissions among the three countries is very significant. U.S. has the largest per capita emissions, but the per capita emissions for all the three countries tend to decline in the long run; 5) Under the target proposed by the European Union, the gross carbon emissions of China, U. S. and Poland decline by a small margin, while under the Copenhagen conference scenario, China can definitely realize the goal that its carbon intensity in 2020 would be reduced by 40%~45% compared with the level in 2005. But it is difficult to fulfill the goal of reducing carbon emissions by 50% by the year of 2050. The carbon emissions of U.S. and Poland will keep increasing and they will encounter more challenges in the future to attain their goals if they do not take any reduction measure.