| 基于二叉树的实物期权法在新药研发中的应用研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 倪亚飞.基于二叉树的实物期权法在新药研发中的应用研究[J].技术与创新管理,2009,30(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 倪亚飞 |
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| 作者单位： | 湖南大学,经济与贸易学院,湖南,长沙,410079 |
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| 摘 要： | 与传统的净现金流法相比,基于二又树的实物期权法在时新药研发过程中的不确定性的处理及柔性管理上更趋合理.并引用具体"两性霉素B脂质体"案例,模拟新药研发过程中的技术和价格的不确定性,对比定量分析刚性管理下的净现金流法和融入柔性管理下的二又树实物期权法,进一步以具体的数据论证了二又树的实物期权在新药研发项目评价上的科学性和有效性.
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| 关 键 词： | NPV法 实物期权法 二又树模型 新药研发 |
The Research on Applications of Real Options based on Binomial Tree Used in the Development of New Drugs |
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| NI Ya-fei.The Research on Applications of Real Options based on Binomial Tree Used in the Development of New Drugs[J].Technology and Innovation Management,2009,30(1). |
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| Authors: | NI Ya-fei |
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| Institution: | School of Economy and Trade;Hunan University;Changsha 410079;China |
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| Abstract: | The ROA is based on Binary Model is more reasonable than the NPV in dealing with high uncertainties and management flexibilities in the development of new drugs.At the same time,we introduce the Amphotericin B liposome to further demonstrate those by following steps: simudlating the uncertainties of technology and price;analysing contrastively from the view point of the rigid NPV and flexible ROA based on Binary Model. |
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| Keywords: | net present value real options binomial tree new drug research |
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