基于混沌分析的汇率决定模型

将非线性科学的主要方法——混沌分析方法与汇率理论相结合,为研究汇率决定问题开启了新的视角。本文在介绍和分析Paul De Grauwe等提出的基本混沌货币模型及扩展模型的基础上,分析了模型存在的不足,较全面的介绍了Frank H.Westerhoff等学者提出的参数改进模型、基于流分析者引入和中央银行干预所提出的汇率决定混沌模型。通过这些模型的介绍,有助于理清混沌分析方法应用于汇率决定理论的发展脉络,为进一步研究汇率决定理论提供依据。

Exchange Rate Determining Model Based on Chaotic Analysis

The method of combining chaotic analysis and exchange rate theory is widely used in nonlinear science.It opens the new perspective on the research of exchange rate determining.On the basis of introduction and analysis of basic chaotic currency model and its related extended model which were put forward by some researchers such as Paul De Grauwe.This paper studies the theories＇ incompleteness and it makes comparatively full introduction of some parameter modified model and the model of exchange rate determining based on flow analysis trader and central bank intervention made by Frank H.Westerhoff,etc.By doing that,it is helpful for clearing the development clues of chaotic analysis method on exchange rate determining theory,and beneficial for evidence providing on further research.