中国货币需求函数的协整检验实证分析

从凯恩斯的货币需求函数结合目前中国货币需求现状出发,提出了上世纪90年代中期以来中国的货币需求函数,并运用协整分析方法进行实证研究,从而既可以消除时间系列的非平衡性,同时又保留了数据资料所包含的长期信息。在最后回归结果的分析中,具体分析了影响我国货币需求各因素的情况。通过计量计算得出结论:我国货币需求的收入弹性偏低;名义利率与各层次货币需求之间具有负相关关系;证券市场对货币需求影响很大。

An Empirical Research of Co-integration Analysis for China'' s Monetary Demand Function

This paper begins with Keynes' monetary demand function combined with the current conditions of China' s monetary demand, and then puts forward a function of China' s monetary demand since the mid-1990s. By applying the analysis of Co-integration test in a substantial research, the paper eliminates the unbalance of time series and reserves the longtime information included in the data. In the last part of the regression result analysis, the paper analyzes all factors affecting China' s monetary demand. Finally, the following conclusions are obtained from computation:the income elasticity of our country' s monetary demand is small; the nominal interest rate is negative as related to every level of the monetary demand; and the negotiable securities market has great influence on the monetary demand.