欧盟旅游与经济增长关系研究 ——基于面板数据的实证分析

旅游发展与整体经济增长之间的关系一直是旅游经济研究领域的热点。应用异质面板协整技术对1996—2011年间欧盟27国旅游发展和经济增长之间关系进行分析，并着重针对新旧欧盟和东欧、南欧、西欧、北欧展开比较研究，其实证结果显示，各地区旅游发展和经济增长之间都存在显著相关性；进一步的格兰杰检验亦表明两者间在欧盟15国无论从短期还是长期来看均存在双向因果关系；欧盟12国虽然短期内也存在双向因果关系，长期来看却只存在旅游对经济增长的单项因果关系。以地理因素来进行划分的南欧组别结果也印证了该结论。上述研究结果对欧盟地区制定旅游发展战略具有一定的政策启示。

An empirical study on the relationship between tourism development and economic growth—a panel data analysis of the EU case

This paper applies the heterogeneous panel conintegration technique to investigate the causal relationship between tourism development and economic growth for EU countries (including EU 15 and EU 12) for the time period of 1996-2011. After allowing for the heterogeneous country effect, a conintegrated relationship between tourism development and GDP is substantial. It is also determined that from the long time effect perspective, there exist bidirectional causality between tourism development and economic growth in both EU 15 and EU 12; this is also the case in EU 15 from a short time effect perspective but only unidirectional causality in EU 12. This has been reproved from the country groups divided according to geographic factors. These empirical findings have great policy implications.