潜在震源区范围的不确定性对地震危险性分析结果的影响规律

通过地震危险性概率分析计算，认为只有当潜在震源区中心眯离场点距离（Ｒ）很近时，潜在震源区面积减小，地震烈度、地震动值加速度越大；反之人相反，并且当Ｒ〉４０ｋｍ时，潜在震源区范围不确定性对地震度，地震动峰值和加速度的影响搬小；不令地区或地震强度如何，潜在震源区范围的不确定性对地震烈度或地震动峰值加速度的影响规律相似；相比较而言，这种不确定性对地震动峰值国速度的影响较对地震烈度的影响要大。

Study on Influences of Uncertainties of Potential Seismic Source Area on Results of Seismic Risk Analysis

Through seismic risk probability analysis,some useful results are obtained: when the distance ( R ) between construction site and center of potential seismic source area is very near, the smaller potential seismic source area is ,the bigger seismic magnitude or peak acceleration; on the other hand, the result turns out contrary, and when R >40km, the uncertainty influences of potential seismic source area are very few on seismic magnitude or peak acceleration; these influence are similar in different regions; influences on peak acceleration are bigger than on seismic magnitude.