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Mobility in China, 2020: a tale of four phases
Authors:Suoyi Tan  Shengjie Lai  Fan Fang  Ziqiang Cao  Bin Sai  Bing Song  Bitao Dai  Shuhui Guo  Chuchu Liu  Mengsi Cai  Tong Wang  Mengning Wang  Jiaxu Li  Saran Chen  Shuo Qin  Jessica R Floyd  Zhidong Cao  Jing Tan  Xin Sun  Tao Zhou  Wei Zhang  Andrew J Tatem  Petter Holme  Xiaohong Chen  Xin Lu
Abstract:2020 was an unprecedented year, with rapid and drastic changes in human mobility due to the COVID-19 pandemic. To understand the variation in commuting patterns among the Chinese population across stable and unstable periods, we used nationwide mobility data from 318 million mobile phone users in China to examine the extreme fluctuations of population movements in 2020, ranging from the Lunar New Year travel season (chunyun), to the exceptional calm of COVID-19 lockdown, and then to the recovery period. We observed that cross-city movements, which increased substantially in chunyun and then dropped sharply during the lockdown, are primarily dependent on travel distance and the socio-economic development of cities. Following the Lunar New Year holiday, national mobility remained low until mid-February, and COVID-19 interventions delayed more than 72.89 million people returning to large cities. Mobility network analysis revealed clusters of highly connected cities, conforming to the social-economic division of urban agglomerations in China. While the mass migration back to large cities was delayed, smaller cities connected more densely to form new clusters. During the recovery period after travel restrictions were lifted, the netflows of over 55% city pairs reversed in direction compared to before the lockdown. These findings offer the most comprehensive picture of Chinese mobility at fine resolution across various scenarios in China and are of critical importance for decision making regarding future public-health-emergency response, transportation planning and regional economic development, among others.
Keywords:human mobility  travel restrictions  COVID-19  mobile phone data  behavioral response
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