西电东送输入区环境效应综合评价

西电东送是解决我国能源空间产销不平衡的重要途径,也是改善东西部地区环境质量的重要手段之一.对东部输入区而言,西电是清洁能源,其环境效应显著.具体体现在西电输入可以直接替代东部地区原有小火电,减少污染物的直接排放,尤其是消除对环境造成极大破坏的SO2排放导致的酸雨污染;同时将间接推动东部地区能源消费结构的优化,为东部地区经济发展提供更多的环境支撑.本文以广东为例,利用计量经济学方法定量分析西电对输入区的环境效应及其潜在的间接环境效应.数量分析结果表明,西电的输入对降低东部地区与电力相关的污染物排放作用是显著的.针对西电输入、输出区环境容量不同的经济价值,提出西电东送可以同时提高双方的环境容量及其边际价值,提高双方的总体社会福利水平.以西电东送为纽带,推动区域经济合作和协调发展,实现西电东送战略的持续实施.

Integrated Evaluation on Environmental Effects of West East Power Transmission in Guangdong Province

West-East Power Transmission Project, a cross regional and strategic project for the 21st century, can effectively solve the imbalance between energy supply in west part of China and demand in the east, and improve environmental quality for both supply and demand regions. For the input regions, west power as a clean environmental energy,will bring positive environmental effects. Firstly, west power will replace small coal-fire power plants directly in east part of China under competitive market, and reduce pollutions. As a result, environmental protection investment can be economized to 15 billions based on calculation for the period of 2005- 2010. Secondly, on the condition that west power is clean and cheap, it is competitive in comparison with electric power generating in east part of China. Energy sources for consumption in east part of China will have to be optimized in order to cope with the competitions. Subsequently, environmental quality in the east will be improved to support regional sustainable development. Based on above theoretical analysis, the paper, selecting Guangdong Province as a representative region of the input regions, analyzes the direct and indirect environmental effects by using the method of Econometrics. Data arising from the analysis confirms that West-East Power Transmission will reduce SO2 emission particularly acid rain pollution. Furthermore, relations between pollutions drilling volume and population, average GDP, energy consumption per GDP in Guangdong Province are significant. It is suggested that energy consumption will increase rapidly accompanying economic development, so environmental quality could be deteriorated in the future. Finally,the paper points out the West-East Power Transmission can improve social welfare for both sides because of different marginal returns for environment capacity. The east part of China, if uses the west power appropriately, could improve local environmental capacity, and therefore upgrade industrial structure. In addition, West-East Power Transmission Project will help to promote regional economic cooperation. Feasible countermeasures should be put forward based on sustainable development theory and regional harmony development so as to fulfill the strategic goal of West-East Power Transmission Project.