海西经济增长的短板效应——基于TFP分析产业结构变动对GDP的制约

采用Malmquist TFP指数,基于海西经济区19个市(除抚州市)1994-2008年的面板数据,实证考察了各市全要素生产率变动及其成因。在样本考察期间,海西平均全要素生产率达到效率前沿面。1994-1999年间,主要是技术效率的提高促进了全要素生产率的增长;而在2000-2008年间,主要是技术进步的提升使得全要素生产率出现了正的增长。虽然总体上看全要素生产率达到了效率前沿面,但是从Tobit模型回归结果看,产业结构的调整、外资对于全要素生产率的影响并不显著,总体经济并没有向着真正的集约型增长方式发展。人力资本还未达到促进技术进步的阀值。进出口、科学事业支出对于全要素生产率的影响比较明显。

A Short Board Effect of the Economic Grouth in the West Coast of Taiwan Straits

In this paper we studied the changes of TFP and the causes of the 19 cities of the West Coast of the Taiwan Strait on the basis of the panel data from 1994 to 2008 by using the Malmquist TFP Index.During the period of examining the samples,the average TFP of the West Coast of the Taiwan Strait has reached the efficiency frontier.From 1994 to 1999 the increase of technical efficiency promoted the increase of TFP,while from 2000 to 2008 the upgrade of technical efficiency caused the positive increase of TFP.Although the TFP has been reached to the efficiency frontier on the whole,the adjustment of industrial structure and the foreign capital and import-export didn’t have significant effects on the TFP from the regression results of Tobit models.The total economic growth hasn’t really developed towards the intensive orientation,nor has the human capital reached the threshold value of technical improvement.The expenditure of science and technology has a relatively significant effect on TFP.