中国土地用途管制绩效的时空差异性分析

基于因子分析法,协调度模型法和比较分析法,定量分析我国31个省(自治区、直辖市)在1996年-2010年间土地用途管制绩效的时空差异,探讨社会经济与政策制度的协调性,以期为我国土地用途管制制度的完善提供参考意见.研究结果表明:从时间维度看,我国土地用途管制绩效在短期内效果显著,长期内效果逐渐减弱；结合我国粮食分区状况,从空间维度看,管制制度绩效评价好的省(自治区、直辖市)大部分属于粮食主产区,而执行效果相对较差的省(自治区、直辖市)基本上都是粮食主销区；从协调度角度看,在管制制度实施的情况下,大量经济滞后的省(自治区、直辖市)政策执行过度,社会经济发展明显滞后于政策制度,协调度指数大幅下降,而经济高度发达地区则大部分达到了高度协调水平.得出研究结论,根据土地用途管制绩效的时空差异和协调性分析,针对不同时段不同分区采取差异化管制政策及措施,提高管制绩效水平,完善我国土地用途管制制度.

Spatial-Temporal Differences of Land Use Control Performance in China

The purpose of this paper is to provide a reference for improving the Chinese land use control system. Here, we examine spatial and temporal differences across 31 provinces from 1996 to 2010 and explore the coordination of socio-economy and policy. Factor analysis, model of coordination and comparative analyses were conducted. The results indicate that land use control in China has a remarkable effect in the short term, but the long term effect is gradually weakening. Most provinces with good performance belonged to grain producing areas, while provinces with relatively poor performance were located in consuming areas. In addition,Tibet and Qinghai (low and junior development provinces) were located in the balanced area. A large number of economic-lagging provinces have implemented the policy excessively under a control system and as a result the socio-economy lagged behind the policy and the coordination index dropped significantly. Highly developed cities such as Beijing and Shanghai got a high level of coordination values of 78.4 and 76.29 from 1999 to 2004, and the coordination of a grain- producing area such as Heilongjiang province was only 42.17. Different control policies and measures at different times are needed to improve regulatory performance levels and perfect land use control systems in China.