| 数值预报产品在咸阳区域夏季降水预报中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱海利.数值预报产品在咸阳区域夏季降水预报中的应用[J].咸阳师范学院学报,2001,16(4):75-77. |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱海利 |
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| 作者单位： | 咸阳市气象局,陕西,咸阳,712000 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据现有数值预报产品及实时探空资料，结合本地天气预报特点，用客观分析计算逐日物理量诊断场，加入同期的欧洲中心数值预报产品，应用典型相关分析法，并结合逐步判别和逐步回归法，得出夏季中雨以上降水预报方程，提高了区域范围内具有明显突发性对流降水的预报能力。
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| 关 键 词： | 数值预报产品 夏季降水 咸阳市 夏季降水预报 应用 统计预报方程 逐步差别法 逐步回归法 |
| 文章编号： | 1008-7591(2001)04-0075-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2000年11月20 |
The Application of numerical prediction products to the Severe rain forecasting in xianyang region |
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| Zhu Haili.The Application of numerical prediction products to the Severe rain forecasting in xianyang region[J].Journal of Xianyang Normal University,2001,16(4):75-77. |
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| Authors: | Zhu Haili |
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| Institution: | Meteorological of xianyang city 712000 |
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| Abstract: | The available numevical prediction products as well as the real - time radiosonde data, in view of the characteristics of local weather prediction ,a practical scheme for predicting the precipitation is presented in order to increase the accuracy of prediction on the unexpected convective precipitation. The di- agnostic field of the daily physical factors were calculated by using objecive analysis. These calculation re- suits are added into the numerical prediction production of the ECMWF. Then the precipitation prediction equation is aeveloped by using the canonical correlation analysis. successive regression as well as discrimi- natory analysis ethods. |
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| Keywords: | numerical prediction product summer precipitation Prediction equation |
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