玉米南运的耕地资源流动及其影响分析

粮食贸易所隐含的虚拟资源流动是20世纪90年代以来提出的，除供需配置和流域配置之外的另一种重要的粮食和农业资源配置形式。本文借鉴“虚拟资源”的概念和方法，分析了我国玉米“北粮南运”的虚拟耕地资源流动，并重点分析了其对于区域耕地资源配置的影响。结果表明，我国每年从北方运往南方的玉米将近4000万吨，相当于向南方调运了590～950万公顷的虚拟耕地。作为主要调出区，东北地区资源优势明显，玉米流动的资源配置方式较为合理，华北地区的优势则不明显，资源配置欠合理。虽然虚拟耕地资源流动满足我国南方地区的粮食需求，却承担着巨大的经济、生态、社会公平代价。Tony Allan提出的虚拟资源贸易是具有利益倾向性的，为了弥补虚拟耕地调出区的损失，有必要合理配置耕地资源，给予我国耕地资源流出区一定补助，对耕地资源给予补偿，并将耕地资源和土地资源纳入统一的核算模式中。

Virtual Farmland Flow and Effects of Maize Sent from the North to the South

the flow of virtual resources hided in grain trade is another important allocation form of water resources since 1990, except the allocation form of supply and demand side and of basin redeployment. Using the concept and method of virtual resources, the paper analyzed the virtual land flow of maize on the situation of sending grains from the Nouth to the Sorth and its impact to land resources allocation in China. Results show that the maize sent to the South reached 40 million tons that is equivalent to 5.9~9.5 million hm2 of VF. Being the main area of resources out-flowing , the Northeast China has advantages on resources, so its resources allocation is rational, while the North of China doesn’t have enough advantages, and its resources allocation need to be adjusted. Though the grain transferred can meet the grain demand from the South of China, it put high costs of social economic and ecological cost on resources out-flowing areas. In fact, Tony Allan’s Virtual Resources trade is benefit oriented, so it is necessary to allocate farmland more rationally, and provide subsidy to the farmland flowing-out area, and makeup the lost of farmland, and integrate the farmland and land into a uniform accounting form.