突发事件中场域组态异构、边度耦合与舆论圈层扩散的内生影响研究

研究目的]探索组态异构、边度耦合及圈层扩散之间动态影响机制,以实现对突发事件信息进行差异化监控与治理。研究方法]使用2015-2020年我国具有代表性的11起突发事件面板大数据,采用向量自回归、状态空间模型及面板数据模型对三者之间关系进行分析。研究结论]圈层扩散自相关效应、边度耦合及组态异构的冲击对圈层扩散的影响均较大,圈层扩散自相关效应与边度耦合的影响均具有断尾效应,组态异构具有长尾效应;组态异构对圈层扩散波动的贡献率最大,圈层扩散自相关及边度耦合的贡献率较大;组态异构对圈层扩散的边际影响力变化呈倒U型特征,边度耦合对圈层扩散的边际影响力较平稳;组态异构、边度耦合及圈层扩散之间的相互影响效应在不同人口统计学群体间存在差异。

Research of Endogenous Influence Between Configuration Heterogeneity,Edge Coupling and Circling Layer Diffusion of Cyberspace Field in Emergency Events

Research purpose]In order to seek for the dynamic influence mechanism between configuration heterogeneity,edge coupling and circling layer diffusion,and to realize differentiating monitoring and governance of emergency event information.Research method]The paper explores the relationship between configuration heterogeneity,edge coupling and circling layer diffusion.Research conclusion]The research finds that:Circling layer diffusion auto-correlation effect,edge coupling and configuration heterogeneity all have great influence on circling layer diffusion.The configuration heterogeneity has the greatest contribution rate to fluctuation of the circling layer diffusion,and the contribution rate of the autocorrelation of the circling layer diffusion and edge coupling are greater.The variation of marginal influence of configuration heterogeneity on circling diffusion has an inverted U-shaped characteristic.The interaction effects between configuration heterogeneity,edge coupling and circling layer diffusion are different in different demographic groups.