基于技术研发与基础研究关联的中国重点技术领域前沿主题预测

[研究目的]基于技术研发与基础研究的关联挖掘技术领域前沿主题,对于促进基础研究成果转化具有重要意义。但是现有技术领域前沿主题预测或者来自专利或者依据文献分析,存在基础研究与技术研发的脱节。[研究方法]以专利代表技术研发成果,通过专利的非专利引文建立技术研发与基础研究的关联关系,并提出一种综合考虑专利引用基础研究成果时滞及专利科学循环周期预测技术领域前沿主题的方法。[研究结论]研究结果显示:a.可基于技术研发成果集中引用基础研究成果的时滞区间,通过基础研究成果主题预测技术领域前沿主题;b.中国农业技术领域前沿主题包括种质资源发掘保存与创新、畜禽健康养殖与疫病防护、环保型肥料创制等;c.中国材料技术领域前沿主题包括智能材料与结构制备技术、高温超导材料与制备技术;d.中国能源技术领域前沿主题包括大规模输配电和电网安全保障、可再生能源低成本规模化开发利用、氢能及燃料电池技术等;e.中国网络信息技术领域前沿主题包括传感器网络与智能信息处理、智能感知技术、信息安全保障技术等;f.中国制造与工程技术领域前沿主题包括极端制造技术、数字化与智能化设计制造。

Prediction of Frontier Development and Research Topics of Essential Technology Fields in China Based on Linkage Between Basic Research and Technology Development

[Research purpose]Exploring frontier topics of technology fields based on linkage between technology R&D and basic research plays an essential role in promoting the transformation of basic research results.However,recent prediction of frontier development and research topics of technology fields either considered patents or journal articles only as datasets,which isolated technology R&D from basic research.[Research method]This paper used patents to represent technology R&D results,formed linkage between technology R&D with basic research through non-patent references,and put forward the task that combines citation time-lag of technology R&D results and science cycle time of technology R&D results,to predict frontier development and research topics of technology fields.[Research conclusion]The results and conclusions show:a.Frontier topics of technology fields can be predicted by topics of basic research results based on the time-lag that technology R&D results frequently citing basic research results;b.The frontier topics of agriculture in China are exploration,reservation and innovation of germplasm resources,healthy livestock and poultry breeding and disease prevention and control,creation of environmentally friendly fertilizers,etc.;c.The frontier topics of material in China are high-temperature superconducting crystals and bulk materials,intelligent materials and structures;d.The frontier topics of energy in China are large-scale power transmission and distribution and power grid security guarantee methods,low-cost development of renewable energy,hydrogen and fuel cell technology,etc.;e.The frontier topics of network in China are sensor network and intelligent information processing technology,perceptive technology,information security assurance technology,etc.;f.The frontier topics of manufacturing in China are extreme manufacturing,digital and intelligent designing.