Fault Tree Analysis: An emerging methodology for instructional science

Fault Tree Analysis is a systematic approach to improving the probability of succes in any system. FTA was first developed as part of the U.S. Space Industry and was applied to such programs as the Minute Man Missile evaluations. Kent G. Stephens has successfully applied the technique to instructional and administrative programs, the latest program being the development of an FTA Institute for the Training Command of the United States Navy. More than a million dollars are being allocated to that program. R. Kent Wood has used the FTA methodology as a tool for a national needs assessment of teacher use of library media centers in the United States (NATUL Project). Bruce Barker has used the FTA methodology in religious education curriculum development. Because of the newness of the Fault Tree Analysis, coupled with its rapid acceptance as a tool for systems analysis and its very different approach of analyzing possible modes of failure in systems to increase the probability of success, this article is timely as the most complete coverage of FTA to date.