21世纪前20年中国经济增长前景展望：基于供给导向模型与需求导向模型的对比分析

经济增长不仅受供给要素的推动，而且受需求因素的拉动，本文通过分别建立供给导向与需求导向的中国宏观经济模型，对21世纪前20年中国经济增长的前景进行了预测与展望。文章指出，在经济发展到一定阶段时，供给要素只说明了经济增长的潜力大小，在生产能力不成为经济增长的主要制约因素时，需求的变动对经济增长更具有重要的现实意义，因此，加强需求管理应当成为21世纪中国政府的一项长期政策选择。

Prospects for China Economy Growth in the First Two Decadse of the 21 Century--An analysis based on the models of a supply-oriented economy and a demand-oriented economy

Economy growth not only gained from the propelling of supplying factors, but also from the pulling of demand factors. By establishing the models of a supply oriented economy and a demand oriented economy,this paper provides projections of the trend of China's economy growth in the first two decades of the 21 century. This paper also makes the following points: when an economy developed into a centain stage, the supplying factors only provide the potentialities of the ecomomy growth, and when the production capacity is not the major restrict to the economy growth, it is more important for the demand factors. Hence, it should be a long policy for the government to choose to enhance demand management in the 21 century.