基于城镇化视角的省域粮食安全研究——以江苏省为例

以城镇化为视角,探讨了城镇化发展与粮食安全的关系。将城镇化细分为人口、土地、经济和消费四个方面,构建城镇化发展评价指标,采用熵权法与多元回归相结合的方法,对江苏省2001-2012年的数据进行了实证分析,结果表明经济城镇化与人口城镇化对粮食安全具有促进作用,而土地城镇化与消费城镇化对粮食安全具有不同程度的负面作用,特别是土地城镇化负面作用较为明显。因此,对稀缺土地的科学使用显得至关重要。城镇化与粮食安全的分析结果更加表明,合理的制度安排是确保二者协同发展的重要保障。通过偏向农业的制度安排,合理控制土地使用,引导居民消费习惯,促进城镇化平衡发展,就不会出现大的粮食安全隐患。

Provincial Food Security from the Perspective of Urbanization in Jiangsu Province

Urbanization is an inevitable trend of the development of a country in modern society. The report of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China regarded new urbanization strategy as an important direction for future development,which also increased the discussion of the relationship between development of urbanization and food security. This article was based on this visual angle and studied the relationship between urbanization development and food security. We subdivided urbanization into four aspects:population urbanization,land urbanization,economic urbanization and consumption urbanization. We then constructed an evaluation index of urbanization development including four first class indicators and 12 second class indicators and used the entropy weight method combined with multiple regression to ensure the accuracy of the analysis. Data from 2001-2012 in Jiangsu formed our case study. We found that economic urbanization and population urbanization have promoting functions on food security; land urbanization and consumption of urbanization have different degrees of negative effects on food security,especially land urbanization. The decrease in cultivated land,and increases in urban green land and commercial land restricted grain production to a certain extent. We show that to utilize scarce land is very important for today's China and our results from the relationship between the development of urbanization and food security demonstrates that reasonable system arrangement ensures their coordinated development. Therefore,the reasonable usage of land and guiding residents'consumption habits promote the balance of the development of urbanization and food security hidden dangers. Urbanization should be treated fairly and should not become the scapegoat of food crises for other reasons.