冷战时期美国对古巴的国家情报评估述评

目的/意义]冷战时期,古巴是美国国家情报评估重点关注的对象之一,其主要原因在于古巴自身所处的战略地位及其秉承的社会主义意识形态。研究这一时期美国对古巴的国家情报评估,有助于我们更加深刻地理解国家情报评估对古巴的认知理念和评估模式,同时也可以此为个案进一步认识美国国家情报评估制度的特点。方法/过程]以冷战时期美国对古巴做出的国家情报评估文本为基础研究对象,着重探讨相关国家情报评估的主要内容、基本思路、逻辑依据及其决策价值。结果/结论]研究表明,冷战时期美国对古巴的国家情报评估基本可以分为沉寂、活跃和稳定三个时期,各个时期的国家情报评估工作在评估重心和评估方法上既有传承又有发展,最终形成了一个较为符合古巴本国时代特征与主题的评估范式。

A Review of the National Intelligence Estimates of Cuba during the Cold War

Purpose/Significance]During the Cold War,Cuba was one of the key concerns of the National Intelligence Estimates(NIEs).The main reason was Cuba's strategic position and its socialist ideology.Studying the NIEs of Cuba during this period will help us to understand more deeply the cognitive concepts and assessment models of NIEs for Cuba,and also to further understand the characteristics of the NIEs system.Method/Process]This article is based on the NIEs on Cuba during the Cold War and focuses on the main content and thinking,the logical basis and the decision value of NIEs.Result/Conclusion]The research shows that the NIEs of Cuba during the Cold War can be divided into three periods:silence,activeness and stability.NIEs in each period had both inheritance and development in the focus and methods,and finally formed an evaluation paradigm that conforms to Cuba.