从知觉的选择性看朝鲜战争初期美国的情报误判

目的/意义]朝鲜战争初期,美国出现了严重的情报研判失误,以此为基础制定的国家战略决策随之出现重大偏差,导致战争的规模和范围不断扩大,最终演变成一场大规模的局部战争,对美国国家实力、中美关系和冷战格局都产生了重大影响。是什么导致了美国情报研判的重大失误,如何有效避免,是该文研究的主要着眼点。方法/过程]采用文献学方法和案例分析法,对战争初期美国的几次重大情报研判进行梳理,详细分析其主要观点,并结合知觉的选择性理论探究产生误判的原因。结果/结论]从克服知觉的选择性角度出发,就如何改善情报工作和减少误判,得出3点认识:一是保持情报部门的独立思考能力,是克服认知偏差的前提;二是破解从结论到证据反向推理的认知陷阱,保持开放性思维;三是打破知觉定势的束缚,需要增强对各种噪音和干扰的辨别能力。

On the Misjudgment of American Intelligence in the Early Period of Korean War from the Perspective of Perceptual Selectivity

Purpose/Significance]In the early days of the Korean War,the United States has made serious mistakes in intelligence research and judgment,which resulted in major deviation in the national strategic decision-making based on this,leading to the expansion of the scale and scope of the war,and finally evolved into a large-scale local war,which had a significant impact on the national strength of the United States,Sino-US relations and the pattern of the cold war.What led to the major mistakes of the US intelligence research and how to avoid them effectively is the main focus of this paper.Method/Process]By using the methods of philology and case analysis,this paper combs several major intelligence studies and judgments in the United States in the early stage of the war,analyzes its main points in detail,and explores the causes of misjudgment combined with the selective theory of perception.Result/Conclusion]From the point of view of overcoming the selectivity of perception,this paper puts forward three understandings on how to improve intelligence work and reduce misjudgment:first,to maintain the independent thinking ability of intelligence department which is the premise of overcoming cognitive bias;second,to break the cognitive trap from conclusion to evidence reverse reasoning and to maintain open thinking;third,to break the shackles of perception stereotype,which needs to enhance the ability to deal with various noises and interferences discernment.