高油价时代的国际石油地缘政治与中国石油贸易格局

近年来,世界各国对石油资源的争夺愈演愈烈,油价也一路攀高。高油价的背后,反映的是国际石油地缘政治格局以及世界石油市场格局正在发生着重大变化。当前国际石油地缘政治格局是美国主导、供给方(OPEC、俄罗斯为代表的Non-OPEC、非洲)三分天下的局面。其特点是:除政治、军事手段外,各国还通过争夺石油定价权、进口多元化、石油民族主义、建立战略储备、石油期货等方式来保证石油安全。目前中国每年进口石油的数量与金额不断增加,屡创新高。2005年原油进口达到1.27×108t,对外依存度达到45%,已成为世界第二大石油进口国,并且进口数量与对外依存度在未来还将进一步增加,到2030年有可能达到60%。如何保障石油安全已成为国家层面的战略问题。通过对历年来进口石油的数据统计分析,作者认为要保证中国的石油战略安全,应着重处理好3方面的地缘政治关系:与俄罗斯和中亚的关系;与美国的关系;与日本和东南亚各国的关系。并从国家战略层面这一角度提出化解石油安全的具体措施。包括:①发挥上海合作组织的地缘政治优势;②构建多元化的石油供应战略格局;③建立石油战略储备;④利用石油期货等金融工具规避价格风险。

Oil Geopolitics in High Price and China's Oil Trade Patterns

In recent years,oil price was soaring higher and higher and reached the record of USD75.00 in 2006.More and more countries realized the severity of contention in the field of oil resources.Behind the high oil price,the international oil geopolitics is undergoing great changes.Before 1930,the oil geopolitics situation was dominated by the United States.Then,OPEC hold the global oil market from 1960 to the last century because of their huge oil reserves.These two stages were reckoned as "Low oil price time".Now the characteristic of oil geopolitics is that the oil market is dominated by USA,meanwhile,OPEC,NonOPEC(such as Russia) and Africa play a key role as oil suppliers in the world.In the low oil price time,wars and diplomatic ways are the effective approaches to get oil resource.Whereas,based on the importance of oil in industry and economic security today,every country tries to ensure the national oil security by pursuing oil pricing,diversifying importation,oil nationalism and so on.China's annual oil import increase is startling and China has become the second largest oil import country in the world.Through the historical data of oil import,a conclusion was achieved: The proportion of import oil in oil consumption is 43% now and will be more 50% in the next few years.So the security of import oil is a very pressing topic to China.To solve this problem,some suggestions are given in the paper.Firstly,three relationships should be emphasized;1) The relationship between Russia and Middle Asia should be strengthened because most of the oil import of China is from these countries and such situation will continue for many years;2) Keep good relationship with the United States and avoid conflicts in the field of oil;3) The importance of Southeast Asia is self-evident since the Strait?of?Malacca is the channel for oil transportation.Secondly, four measurements are necessary: 1) Exert the geopolitics advantage of Shanghai Cooperation Organization(SCO);2) Stabilize the amount of oil import from Middle East and Africa because these regions are China's main oil suppliers;3) Establish national oil reserves in strategy in order to avoid the potential risks.4)Use oil finance tools to avoid price risk and contest the oil pricing in the international oil market.