中国二氧化碳排放影响因素分析

在定量计算中国1991～2008年各部门终端化石燃料燃烧的CO2排放量及其变化轨迹基础上，利用LMDI模型，将CO2排放定量分解为下面五个因素：经济发展、部门结构、能源消费结构、能耗强度、碳排放系数。分别考虑这五个因素变化对中国CO2排放变化的影响。结果表明：1991～2008年间，中国化石能源燃烧CO2排放量年均增长率约为6．1％。促进中国CO2排放增长的核心因素是经济快速增长，而抑制CO2排放增长的因素主要是能耗强度下降。

An Analysis of the Factors Influencing Carbon Dioxide Emissions in China

With an quantification calculation to carbon dioxide emissions of fossil fuel from each departments terminal and its change tracks during 1991 -2008, The author utilizes LMDI mode to decompose carbon dioxide emissions quantification energy into five factors including economic development, department structure, energy consumption structure, energy instance and carbon dioxide emissions coefficient so as to eonsidere respectively the influences on carbon dioxide emissions. The results show that carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil energy grow by 6.1% annually, the core to prompt carbon dioxide emission result from rapid economic growth and the restraining factor is decreased energy intensity.