Toward a Predictive Model of Community College Student Success in Blended Classes

This retrospective study evaluates early semester predictors of whether or not community college students will successfully complete blended or hybrid courses. These predictors are available to faculty by the fourth week of the semester. Success is defined as receiving a grade of C- or higher. Failure is defined as a grade below a C- or a withdrawal. Method: Seven variables available to faculty are considered: gender, degree sought, students’ academic level, attendance for the first 4 weeks of face-to-face classes, scores on orientation extra credit assignments, grades on the first quiz, and grades on an early semester reflective essay. Logistic regression is used to evaluate the power of seven variables to predict successful course completion in 15 sections of two business courses: Introduction to Marketing and Marketing Research. Three hundred forty-three students were included in this study. Results show that completion of optional extra credit assignments offered during the first 2 weeks of the semester and performance on the first quiz are significant predictors of successful course completion. These results suggest that students’ self-regulation skill or learning presence in the community of inquiry model is a strong predictor of student success. A faculty-based model like the one presented here can help faculty to enhance their students’ chances of success by highlighting factors that predict successful course completion early in the semester.